The Back Nine Football Picks - Week 4 Predictions
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Updated: Mon 10/3/2011 12:05 pm
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After starting the season with an amazing 12-3-1 record against the spread, we've followed with back to back 8-7-1 performances. Let's keep this streak of winning weeks going in Week 4.
Lions +2.5 at Dallas
Miles Austin is out. Dez Bryant is most likely limited. The Lions present arguably the most dominating front four on defense as any team in the NFL. All that being said, the Cowboys find a way to get it done at home in a close game. Selection - Cowboys
Saints -7 at Jacksonville
Nobody converts on 3rd down as well as the New Orleans Saints and has scored 30+ points in each game this season. Brees continues to expand his weapons with Jimmy Graham now a viable option to go with Colston who should be returning this week. Mark Ingram started to get in the flow of the game last week, so look for the rookie from Alabama to continue to grow in this offense and you can't count out Darren Sproles who is getting more touches than any RB on the Saints through 3 weeks. Jacksonville will again roll out the rookie Blaine Gabbert. Selection - Saints
49ers +9.5 at Philadelphia
The 49ers historically have struggled on the road, losing their last 20 against non NFC West opponents. The Eagles were just embarrassed by their division rival in the NY Giants. Vick will be using a special glove on his non-throwing hand to protect it from further injury. This number keeps moving in the favor of Philadelphia, but we're going to take the points in this one. Selection - 49ers
Redskins Pick'em at St. Louis
The Rams are coming off an embarrassing performance against the Ravens at home and have yet to find a way to protect their franchise quarterback. Steven Jackson looks to play a bigger role in this game as he continues to recover from the quad injury he endured back in week 1 against the Eagles. Washington should have beat the Cowboys last week, holding them out of the end zone for 60 minutes. Shanahan was getting frustrated with Tim Hightower with his inability to stay on his feet in last week's game. Hightower won't have any trouble staying up right in this game being played indoors at the Edward Jones Dome. Selection - Redskins
Titans -1 at Cleveland
Tennessee has yet to get Pro Bowl Running Back and early season hold out Chris Johnson on track, averaging only 51.7 yards on the ground per game through the first three weeks. Under the guidance of Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans are averaging over 300 yards through the air, however are without Kenny Britt for the remainder of the year. The Browns will get Peyton Hillis back this week to beef up their struggling running game, however running against the Titans has been tough this year, as the Titans only allow 89 yards per game on the ground. Look for a low scoring game here in what could be a battle of field goal kickers. Selection - Titans
Buffalo -3 at Cincinnati
The Bills have benefited from winning the Turnover battle in each of their first three games. The Bengals were turnover free until giving up 3 Turnovers last week in their 13-8 loss against the 49ers. Look for a tough game for the Buffalo running attack, forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to do his damage through the air. We expect the Bengals' Cedric Benson who is probable for this week's game to play a major factor as the Bengals surprisingly give the Bills their first loss of the year. Selection - Bengals
Vikings -3 at Kansas City
The Vikings are in a critical position, having blown three double digit halftime leads. Kansas City hung tough against San Diego on the road last week. The Chiefs could be the worst team in the league, while the Vikings one of the most disappointing teams in the league. Selection - Vikings
Panthers +6.5 at Chicago
The Bears have rushed the ball less than any team in the league, which should be no surprise to Mike Martz followers. A weapon like Matt Forte is that much more potent when used both as a rusher and a receiver, so look for the Bears to put the ball in Forte's hands more this week as a way to protect Jay Cutler. The Bears have faced a difficult early season schedule in the Falcons, Saints and Packers. Look for the Bears to feast on the rookie Cam Newton. Selection - Bears
Pittsburgh +3.5 at Houston
Arian Foster is probable this week for a very interesting match up against the struggling Steelers. Despite their early season struggles to protect Big Ben, the Steelers are 2-1 and still maintain a solid pass defense only allowing 164 yards per game through the air. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Steel Curtain early this year, currently -9 in TO differential. Look for the Steelers to take better care of the ball this week and the defense to pick Schaub a few times in an upset on the road. Selection - Steelers
Falcons -5 at Seattle
Roddy White is questionable for this game on the road in Seattle, a very difficult place to play. The Seahawks are struggling to score points, putting up only 30 for the entire season. The Falcons are 0-2 this year on the road, losing in Chicago and Tampa Bay but look for them to notch their first road win this week. Selection - Falcons
Giants -1.5 at Arizona
The Giants are getting healthier on both offense and defense. The Cardinals have yet to put everything together under their new QB, Kevin Kolb. The Cardinals only win was at home in Week 1 against the Panthers, however their two losses have been by 1 and 3 points respectively on the road in Washington and Seattle. Selection - Arizona
Dolphins +7 at San Diego
The Chargers could be looking for a big game through the air today as the Dolphins are giving up 311 yards passing per game. The Dolphins are without rookie RB, Daniel Thomas and will be looking to Reggie Bush and newly signed Steve Slaton to handle the rushing duties. Ryan Matthews is expected to see more action between the 20's, but Tolbert will still see the goal line carries for the Chargers. Selection - San Diego
Broncos +12 at Green Bay
This one could get out of hand early as the Packers return to the comfortable confines of Lambeau Field. Knowshon Moreno returns for Denver and look for Eric Decker to play a role in the passing game, but Green Bay has too much fire power. Selection - Green Bay
Patriots -6.5 at Oakland
Arguably one of the most interesting games of the week. Darren McFadden leads the league in rushing and Al Saunders has found a way to keep the Raiders passing game at least a mild threat. Key for the Raiders will be having success on the ground to keep the ball away from Tom Brady. Both teams are averaging over 30 points per game, but if this game is a shootout, it will favor the Pats. Selection - Oakland
Jets +4.5 at Baltimore
The Ravens responded well after their let down loss against the Titans. The Jets are coming off their first loss of the season on the road against the Raiders. In a game that will come down to who wins the turn over battle, we expect a close game with a field goal late making the difference. Selection - NY Jets
Colts +10.5 at Tampa Bay
What a disappointment to have this rematch of a legendary Monday Night Football game and this year instead of Peyton Manning we get Curtis Painter behind center for the Colts. Tampa will get to Painter early and often in this one. Selection - Tampa Bay
